Monday, January 30, 2012

Inside Lending Newsletter - For the week of January 30, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 5

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Before everything else, getting ready is the secret of success." --Henry Ford

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
...Getting ready for a recovery could be the theme of last week's housing reports. Pending Home Sales, after hitting a 19-month high in November, dipped a bit for December, yet came in 5.6% above where they were a year ago. The National Association of Realtors chief economist observed, "Even with a modest decline, the preceding two months of contract activity are the highest in the past four years outside of the homebuyer tax credit period."

Thursday saw December New Home Sales drop 2.2%, to a lower-than-expected 307,000 annual rate. Yet sales remain in the narrow range they've occupied since May 2010. And the best news was that new home inventories dropped to 157,000, the lowest level on record, since 1963. Unsold new homes under construction and unsold completed new homes are at or near record lows. Experts say this is what's needed to get ready for a sustained housing recovery. Finally, the FHFA price index for homes bought with conforming mortgages was UP 1% in November.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Our motivation colors our work. People driven by money can appear self-serving. But people driven to do the best for their clients usually come off as effective and valuable.

>> Review of Last Week

UP AND DOWN... It was a week where investors couldn't decide if they felt positive or negative about the economy and the major market indexes reflected this, with two of them heading up for the week but the third one ending down. The big news? The Fed extended its pledge to hold interest rates exceptionally low -- from mid-2013 to late 2014. And for the first time, the FOMC set a specific inflation goal: 2%. Also for the first time, the Fed released the rate expectations of each member. The median showed no change this year or next and a hike to only 0.75% by the end of 2014.

Other good news came with Durable Goods Orders, up a better than expected 3% for December. Unfortunately, this was followed by initial jobless claims, up 21,000 for the week, to 377,000. Finally, the Advance GDP estimate for Q4 came in at a 2.8% annual rate. This was better than Q3, but less than expected. Economists were also disappointed that a large part of the increase was only due to an unexpected buildup in inventories.

For the week, the Dow ended down 0.5%, at 12661; the S&P 500 closed up 0.1%, at 1316; and the Nasdaq gained 1.1%, to 2817.

The Fed's announcement it will hold rates low even longer, plus their inflation target, did wonders for bonds. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week UP 1.01, to $103.22. National average mortgage rates edged up a bit in Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages, though they're still at historically low levels. Experts put this to the improving housing market data.

DID YOU KNOW?
...Tuesday's Employment Cost Index measures changes in wages, benefits and bonuses for a group of occupations. It's an inflation indicator because prices can go up with increased labor costs, unless offset by productivity gains.

>> This Week’s Forecast

INFLATION, MANUFACTURING, JANUARY JOBS... Hot buttons this week touch all the hot topics. Monday we see the Fed's favorite inflation measure, Core PCE Prices, expected to stay within the central bank's guidelines. The manufacturing sector gets covered in Tuesday's Chicago PMI, forecast down a trifle, but Wednesday's ISM Index is predicted up for the month.

The hottest of the hot data comes Friday, with the January Employment Report. The forecast is for a smaller gain in payrolls than last month's. Historically, as employment improves, it pulls housing along with it.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Jan 30 – Feb 3

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
M
Jan 30
08:30 Personal Income Dec 0.4% 0.1% Moderate
M
Jan 30
08:30 Personal Spending Dec 0.1% 0.1% HIGH
M
Jan 30
08:30 Core PCE Prices Dec 0.2% 0.1% HIGH
Tu
Jan 31
08:30 Employment Cost Index Q4 0.4% 0.3% HIGH
Tu
Jan 31
09:45 Chicago PMI Jan 62.0 62.5 HIGH
Tu
Jan 31
10:00 Consumer Confidence Jan 67.0 64.5 Moderate
W
Feb 1
10:00 ISM Index Jan 54.7 53.9 HIGH
W
Feb 1
10:30 Crude Inventories 1/28 NA NA Moderate
Th
Feb 2
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 1/28 375K 377K Moderate
Th
Feb 2
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 1/21 3.525M 3.550M Moderate
Th
Feb 2
08:30 Productivity-Prelim. Q4 0.6% 2.3% Moderate
F
Feb 3
08:30 Average Workweek Jan 34.4 34.4 HIGH
F
Feb 3
08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.2% HIGH
F
Feb 37
08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 170K 200K HIGH
F
Feb 3
08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan 8.5% 8.5% HIGH
F
Feb 3
10:00 ISM Services Jan 53.1 52.6 Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... At last week's FOMC meeting, the Fed extended its goal of keeping the Funds Rate super low through late 2014. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 13 0%–0.25%
Apr 25 0%–0.25%
Jun 20 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 13      <1%
Apr 25      <1%
Jun 20      <1%
 
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2012 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender

Thursday, January 26, 2012

7 New Year's Resolutions to Boost Your Success!

If you want to be the best in your field, here are some things you can do that can put you ahead of the pack:

1. Ask big questions.
If you only ask practical, logistical, small questions, you'll just get the small answers that will keep your business going, but not growing. Pursue the big questions: "What's a better way to approach this? How can I change our business for the better?" Bigger questions demand bigger answers. And those lead to bigger successes.

2. Get a mentor who's different from you.
You want a mentor who can open you up to new and different ideas and approaches. You want someone who supports what you're doing, but who might come from a different business area, like manufacturing. They'll contribute new perspective, frank insights and innovative feedback.

3. Be true to yourself.
You can't lead if you're always trying to act the way you think others would like you to. You can't please everybody, but if you simply be yourself, you'll find the right people will be drawn to you.

4. Focus on the mutual benefit.
If you want clients to be loyal to you, be loyal to them. Don't put your business development efforts ahead of serving the business you already have. The same goes for employees. If you want them to work hard for you, work hard for them. Lead by example.

5. Let go of bad clients.
It's true, 80% of your time is taken up by 20% of your clients. That's OK if they're profitable, but if not, now's the time to cut your losses. Bottom line, it will give you more time to make more money.

6. Do some hands-on volunteering.
It's important to support your favorite causes financially, but it's equally important to roll up your sleeves and actively help. The giving you actually experience is good for your head and good for your heart. And that's the real foundation for success.

7. Don't turn into a workaholic.
The goal of successful people is to be productive and efficient, not to work long hours. Working all the time actually makes it easy to be inefficient. Long hours do not represent a good work ethic; efficiency does. Plus to succeed, it's important to be well-rounded; spend time with family, friends and personal interests.

Make these resolutions and stick with them. They're great ways to improve yourself and your business.... Enjoy a great month!
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2012 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender

Monday, January 23, 2012

Inside Lending Newsletter - For the week of January 23, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 4

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Happiness is not a state to arrive at, but a manner of traveling." --Margaret Lee Runbeck

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
...Well, we can all make our way with a bit of a smile on our faces, courtesy of the latest Housing Starts numbers. At first blush, the December report seemed disappointing, down 4% for the month. But starts overall are UP 24.9% from a year ago and December's drop was all from multi-family starts, very volatile month-to-month. Single-family starts were UP 4.4% for the month and UP 11.6% for the year. No wonder the National Association of Home Builders confidence index went to 25, its highest reading since 2007.

For those who still couldn't put on a happy face, Friday's data should have done the trick. Existing Home Sales were UP 5% in December, their third consecutive gain, to their highest level since January 2011. The inventory of existing homes is down 21% from last year and the months' supply dropped to 6.2, the lowest level since April 2006. For all of 2011, sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops rose 1.7%, to 4.26 million units.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... There are so many variables in business, you can't know exactly how you will reach your goal. So what matters most is your determination to get there.

>> Review of Last Week

HAPPY NEW YEAR SO FAR...All three major market indexes ended ahead again for the week, chalking up very nice gains for the very young year--the Dow UP 4.1%, the S&P 500 UP 4.6% and the Nasdaq UP 7.0% thus far. Investor sentiment is generally a good leading indicator for the economy, but the recovery is still slow and the economic reports continue to deliver mixed messages.

Industrial Production, up 0.4% in December, fell short of expectations. Yet two regional manufacturing indexes did better for the month: the Empire State and the Philadelphia Fed. On the inflation front, producer prices were down 0.1%, though Core prices excluding food and energy were up 0.3%. The Consumer Price Index was unchanged, but Core CPI went up 0.1%. The best news? Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims fell to 352,000, their lowest level since April 2008.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 2.4%, at 12720; the S&P 500 closed UP 2.0%, to 1315; and the Nasdaq gained 2.8%, to 2787.

With stocks rallying, heavy selling in the bond market sent prices southward. Investors were also calmed by hopes of a Greek debt deal, though that hasn't happened yet. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .87 to $102.21. Freddie Mac's survey of conforming mortgages showed national average mortgage rates virtually unchanged, staying at record low levels for another week.

DID YOU KNOW?
...This week's Advanced GDP number will be revised twice, with next month's Preliminary GDP and then Final GDP a month later. These revisions can impact financial markets.

>> This Week’s Forecast

PENDING HOME SALES, NEW HOME SALES, THE FED, THE GDP... This week isn't missing much in the way of interesting topics. December Pending Home Sales come Wednesday, forecast down a bit after a November gain. The Fed's FOMC Rate Decision shouldn't change anything, but for the first time, Fed member's outlooks on interest rates will be released. Following this will be Chairman Bernanke's press conference and that could be interesting.

December New Home Sales happen Thursday, projected to inch up a bit. Friday we get how the overall economy did in Q4, with the Advanced GDP estimate. Gross Domestic Product is expected to climb from an anemic 1.8% to a more acceptable 3.1%.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Jan 23 – Jan 27

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
W
Jan 25
10:00 Pending Home Sales Dec -3.0% 7.3% Moderate
W
Jan 25
10:30 Crude Inventories 1/21 NA -3.438M Moderate
W
Jan 25
12:30 FOMC Rate Decision 1/25 0%-0.25% 0%-0.25% HIGH
Th
Jan 26
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 1/21 375K 352K Moderate
Th
Jan 26
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 1/14 3.550M 3.432M Moderate
Th
Jan 26
08:30 Durable Goods Orders Dec 2.0% 3.7% Moderate
Th
Jan 26
10:00 New Home Sales Dec 322K 315K Moderate
Th
Jan 26
10:00 Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Dec 0.7% 0.5% Moderate
F
Jan 27
08:30 GDP-Adv. Q4 3.1% 1.8% Moderate
F
Jan 27
08:30 GDP Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 1.5% 2.6% Moderate
F
Jan 27
09:55 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-Final Jan 74.2 74.0 Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Virtually all the experts say the Fed Funds Rate will stay at its super low level coming out of this week's FOMC meeting. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25 0%–0.25%
Mar 13 0%–0.25%
Apr 25 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25      <1%
Mar 13      <1%
Apr 25      <1%
 
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2012 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Inside Lending Newsletter - For the week of January 16, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 3



>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."If you have to forecast, forecast often."--Edgar R. Fiedler

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
...Economist Fiedler, Assistant Treasury Secretary under Presidents Nixon and Ford, knew that wise forecasters give themselves lots of opportunities for revisions. This time of year, the focus is on forecasts and even though many will soon be revised, some are worth considering. The chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Berkeley, feels home prices have bottomed and are increasing, though not rebounding, where there's strong job growth. But other economists anticipate a 5% decline in home prices over the next two years.

Several industry watchers expect mortgage rates to stay low in 2012, especially the first half of the year. But buyers and those looking to refinance shouldn't drag their feet. Freddie Mac's chief economist expects rates to rise at least somewhat during the second half of the year. Fannie Mae's chief economist thinks rates will stay flat most of the year, but may go up a tick the last quarter. And he's hopeful lenders will work with more buyers with good credit scores. 

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Don't fall victim to "analysis paralysis," putting off a decision until you've evaluated every possible option. Successful people just focus on the critical details, then act.

>> Review of Last Week

SOMEHOW STAYING POSITIVE...From little guys to big time investors, we're all trying to keep our spirits up on the good news and patiently wait out the bad. This week had a bit of both, ending Friday with the disappointing report that France lost its "AAA" credit rating and Italy and Spain are expected to drop a couple of notches in their ratings as well. But investors found enough encouragement to help stocks post a modest gain for the second trading week of the year.

One thing that made everyone upbeat was the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shot up from December's 69.9 to a preliminary reading of 74.0 for January, its highest level since May 2011. But disappointing news came with December Retail Sales--up just 0.1% overall and down 0.2%, excluding autos. The Fed's Beige Book noted a modest increase in economic activity but said nothing to allay concerns over the slow pace of recovery. Finally, the trade deficit grew to $47.8 billion with a drop in exports.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.5%, at 12422; the S&P 500 closed UP 0.9%, to 1289; and the Nasdaq gained 1.4%, to 2711.

The bond market enjoyed the benefits of the flight to safety by investors who had new reasons to fret over the European sovereign debt situation. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week UP .03, at $103.08. National average rates for all types of mortgages tracked by Freddie Mac hit new lows for the week ending last Thursday.

DID YOU KNOW?
...Inflation is the overall general upward price movement of goods and services in an economy, usually as measured by this week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI).

>> This Week’s Forecast

HOME BUILDING, EXISTING HOME SALES, INFLATION... Housing news comes Thursday with December Housing Starts and Building Permits gauging the state of new construction. The annual rates are expected to dip a little, staying just under 700,000. Friday's Existing Home Sales for December are expected to rise to 4.57 million, which is encouraging.

The week also features December PPI wholesale inflation readings, forecast holding in safe territory, and consumer CPI inflation numbers, also predicted to hold steady. Monday, U.S. markets are closed in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr., Day.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Jan 16 – Jan 20

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Jan 17
08:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Jan 10.0 9.5 Moderate
W
Jan 18
08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Dec 0.1% 0.3% Moderate
W
Jan 18
08:30 Core PPI Dec 0.1% 0.1% Moderate
W
Jan 18
09:15 Industrial Production Dec 0.5% -0.2% Moderate
W
Jan 18
09:15 Capacity Utilization Dec 78.1% 77.8% Moderate
Th
Jan 19
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 1/14 387K 399K Moderate
Th
Jan 19
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 1/7 3.613M 3.628M Moderate
Th
Jan 19
08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Dec 0.1% 0.0% HIGH
Th
Jan 19
08:30 Core CPI Dec 0.1% 0.2% HIGH
Th
Jan 19
08:30 Housing Starts Dec 670K 685K Moderate
Th
Jan 19
08:30 Building Permits Dec 680K 681K Moderate
Th
Jan 19
10:00 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Jan 10.0 10.3 HIGH
Th
Jan 19
11:00 Crude Inventories 1/14 NA 4.958M Moderate
F
Jan 20
10:00 Existing Home Sales Dec 4.57M 4.42M Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The experts expect the Fed Funds Rate to stay at super low levels. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25 0%–0.25%
Mar 13 0%–0.25%
Apr 25 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25      <1%
Mar 13      <1%
Apr 25      <1%
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2012 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

10 tips to make your home air- and water-tight PLUS...8 things to consider with low-cost, no-contract cell phone plans



Caulk creates a flexible seal in cracks, gaps or joints no bigger than 1/4" to 3/8" in width. Caulking will seal air leaks, especially around windows and door frames. It also prevents water damage when applied around faucets, water pipes, bathtubs and other plumbing fixtures. For larger openings, you can use insulating foam sprays to seal up gaps between siding and masonry or vents. Here are some tips:

1. Clean all areas to be caulked. Use a putty knife or large screwdriver to remove old caulk and paint and make sure the area is dry.

2. Hold the caulking gun at a consistent angle--45 degrees to get deep into the crack. You're at the correct angle when the caulk goes in immediately as it comes out of the tube.

3. Apply the caulk in one straight continuous stream, without stops and starts.

4. Avoid bubbles by sending caulk to the bottom of the opening.

5. Make sure the caulk is sticking to both sides of the crack.

6. If caulk oozes out of the crack, push it back in with a putty knife.

7. If the caulk shrinks, reapply it, forming a smooth bead that seals the crack completely.

8. For windows, apply caulk to all joints in the frame and to the joint between frame and wall.

9. If the crack is deep, use a "backer rod" -- a round foam rod sold by the roll in various diameters. Pick one slightly bigger than the gap. Cut the rod and press into the gap so it's just below the surface. Then caulk on top of it.

10. For bigger gaps, use an insulating foam spray you can buy in a hardware or home supply store. It dries like styrofoam and can be painted if necessary.

COULD A NO-CONTRACT PLAN CUT YOUR CELL PHONE BILL?

It's estimated that consumers waste an average of almost $350 a year on their cell phone services. People typically overestimate the voice minutes and text messages they need and underestimate their data usage. Service plans are complex and carriers offer inexpensive or free phones to entice you into a two-year contract. But for some people, switching to a no-contract plan may be cheaper. Here's what to consider:

1. Do you need the benefits of a contract plan? If you like a wide range of services and want to choose from a variety of phones at low or no cost, the two-year contract is still best. It may also be the most economical for multiple lines under a family plan.

2. Decide what you don't need. A no-contract plan may be best if you can live without lots of phone choices, the fastest network speed or the biggest coverage. Review the services you use in your current plan.

3. Pick a payment arrangement. Prepaid no-contract plans cost a flat amount for a month of service, or they charge by the day or minute, deducting from a preset balance. They're great if you only use your cell for emergencies or want to limit a child's use. You may also find no-contract plans that bill you every month with network speeds and phone choices like the contract plans.

4. Look at the downside. With no-contract plans, carriers can boost rates and change terms, or you could lose your phone number if you forget to reload a prepaid account. There may also be extra activation and daily access charges, and if phone rebates are offered, they may require you to stay with the service for a time.

5. Factor in the phone cost. Compare the higher phone cost of a no-contract plan with the money you're saving each month. The savings may pay for the phone in a few months and after that, it's money in your pocket!

6. See about the data service. Some no-contract plans offer unlimited e-mail and Web surfing in all-in-one plans for voice, text and data with a low monthly cost.

7. Check out the coverage. Some no-contract carriers are owned by the big names and use their networks. But others use smaller networks that might have spotty coverage and charge extra for roaming.

8. Find out how to switch.  Most carriers charge a prorated fee when you cancel a contract early. Compare this to the savings from your new no-contract plan. If you still need to stay until the end of your contract, see if you can drop extra services, like insurance or carrier apps. When you do switch, plan on not having service for a few hours.

P.S.  With today's mortgage rates at historic new lows and the most affordable home prices ever, many people are upsizing, downsizing or refinancing. Remember, we're always here to answer any questions.... Have a great day!

Monday, January 9, 2012

Inside Lending Newsletter -For the week of January 9, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 2



>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Opportunities are disguised by hard work, so most people don't recognize them."--Ann Landers

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
...The latest opportunity in real estate came December 28, when the Federal Housing Administration extended the waiver of its "anti-flipping" rule through the end of 2012. This lets homebuyers, who need FHA-insured financing, purchase homes that were bought by the seller in the last 90 days. And it gives investors looking to rehab and flip properties an expanded market, including first-time homebuyers and others without large down payments, who need FHA-backed loans.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that during 2011, near-record-low mortgage rates drove more homeowners to seek refinancing, moving that MBA index up more than 60%. But demand for purchase loans fell versus 2010, although that year's activity was boosted by the homebuyer tax credit incentives.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...It's great to get organized at the start of a new year. The key is to begin. Focus on just one project. Then break it down into smaller parts and accomplish one thing each day, or week, until done!

>> Review of Last Week

UP START...For investors, 2012 began in the right direction as stocks ended the first week of the year UP. But this result was due mainly to an upsurge on Tuesday that was big enough to offset tepid performances the next three days, when traders got jittery over Europe. Spain was in the spotlight again, with new player Hungary now adding to the financial uncertainty. The net result was a weaker Euro, falling about 0.6% to a new 16-month low of $1.27. Time to take that European vacation.

Encouragement came with manufacturing growing in December at its fastest pace in six months. Weekly initial jobless claims dropped again, to 372,000. The December employment report was an upside surprise, with 200,000 new nonfarm jobs showing up and the unemployment rate inching down to 8.5%. But a few observers were concerned there's probably some seasonality in those numbers. ISM Services, which tracks the sector responsible for over 80% of U.S. jobs, came in a little lower than expected, although still in growth territory.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.2%, at 12360; the S&P 500 closed UP 1.6%, to 1278; and the Nasdaq gained 2.7%, to 2674.

The bond market elicited mixed results for the week, with Treasuries trending lower, but continuing Euro worries supported prices elsewhere. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week UP .78, at $103.05. Average fixed mortgage rates across the U.S. started the new year at or near record lows as tracked by Freddie Mac's weekly survey.

DID YOU KNOW?
..."Home on the Range" is one of the most famous songs with "home" in its title. It was written by Dr. Brewster Higley in 1876 and is the official state song of Kansas.

>> This Week’s Forecast

FED OPINIONS, HOLIDAY SHOPPING, EXPORTS AND CONSUMER FEELINGS... Wednesday, the Fed's Beige Book reveals views on the economy from Federal Reserve Districts around the country. Thursday will gauge the consumer's enthusiasm for holiday shopping, as measured by December Retail Sales, forecast to be up.

The week ends with the November Trade Balance, expected to grow (not so good) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment, also predicted to increase (good).

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Jan 9 – Jan 13

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
W
Jan 11
10:30 Crude Inventories 1/7 NA 2.209M Moderate
W
Jan 11
14:00 Fed's Beige Book Jan NA NA Moderate
Th
Jan 12
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 1/7 375K 372K Moderate
Th
Jan 12
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 12/31 3.588M 3.595M Moderate
Th
Jan 12
08:30 Retail Sales Dec 0.4% 0.2% HIGH
Th
Jan 12
08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec 0.4% 0.2% HIGH
Th
Jan 12
10:00 Business Inventories Nov 0.5% 0.8% Moderate
F
Jan 13
08:30 Trade Balance Nov -$44.3B -$43.5B Moderate
F
Jan 13
09:55 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Jan 71.0 69.9 Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...Economists believe the Fed Funds Rate will stay at super low levels for awhile. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25 0%–0.25%
Mar 13 0%–0.25%
Apr 25 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25      <1%
Mar 13      <1%
Apr 25      <1%
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2012 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Inside Lending Newsletter - For the week of January 2, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 1

Happy New Year!

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Of all the things you wear, your expression is the most important." --Anonymous

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
...It's good to show your best face to the world as the new year begins (see Business Tip of the Week, below) and that just got easier to do. Last week's Pending Home Sales index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) went UP 7.3% in November, hitting its highest level since April 2010! And that earlier reading was artificially boosted, as buyers rushed to beat the deadline for last year's home buyer tax credit.

The NAR's chief economist commented, "Housing affordability conditions are at a record high and there is pent-up demand from buyers who've been on the sidelines.... The sustained rise in contract activity suggests that closed existing-home sales...should continue to improve in the months ahead." The S&P Case-Shiller index for October showed minor price drops in 19 of the 20 surveyed metro areas, but the index was UP 1.9% from its post-crisis low in March 2011.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...The new year is a great time to remember that successful people think positive. They're not unrealistic, but they do see the positive side of an opportunity and firmly believe in their ability to reach their goals.

>> Review of Last Week

GOODBYE, 2011!...The wild year on Wall Street ended not with a bang but a whimper, as stocks slumped slightly for the week on very light trading. Volatility was the theme for 2011, although when all was said and done, the broadly based S&P 500 stock index ended dead flat for the year. This reflects how many investors view the economy: recovering so slowly, its growth slope is practically horizontal. The year's volatility was echoed in a 140-point drop Wednesday followed by a 136-point surge the very next day.

The week's positive economic news included the Pending Home Sales gain covered above and initial jobless claims staying below 400,000 for another week. But none of this "good" news was very terrific, so economic emotions were held in check by the usual suspects: European debt worries and corporate underperformers. Sears announced it would close about 100 stores and American Airlines parent AMR Corp., which filed for bankruptcy protection last month, revealed its stock would be delisted from the Big Board. 

For the week, the Dow ended down 0.6%, at 12218 but UP 5.5% for the year; the S&P 500 also dipped 0.6%, to 1258 but was unchanged for the year; and the Nasdaq dropped 0.5%, to 2605 and was down 1.8% for the year.

Although it was a low volume week all around, the bond market behaved conventionally, prices heading north as stocks drifted south. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week UP .95, at $102.27. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, national average fixed mortgage rates inched up from the prior week's record lows. But they're expected to stay in super low territory for awhile.

DID YOU KNOW?
...The FOMC Minutes released Tuesday give insight into the decision making process for monetary policy and what the Fed thinks about economic developments inside and outside the U.S.

>> This Week’s Forecast

MANUFACTURING, SERVICES, FED MINUTES, JOBS...The markets are closed today in observance of New Year's, but the rest of the week is packed with economic data. ISM Manufacturing on Tuesday should remain in expansion territory just like ISM Services on Thursday. Tuesday's FOMC Minutes from the Fed's December 13 meeting may provide useful insight.

But the week's highlight will be Friday's December Jobs report.150,000 Nonfarm Payrolls should be added, which won't do anything to help the Unemployment Rate, expected to creep back up to 8.7%.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Jan 2 – Jan 6

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Jan 3
10:00 ISM Index Dec 53.4 52.7 HIGH
Tu
Jan 3
14:00 FOMC Minutes 12/13 NA NA HIGH
Th
Jan 5
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 12/31 375K 381K Moderate
Th
Jan 5
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 12/24 3.620M 3.601M Moderate
Th
Jan 5
09:45 ISM Services Dec 53.0 52.0 Moderate
Th
Jan 5
11:00 Crude Inventories 12/31 NA 3.899M Moderate
F
Jan 6
08:30 Average Workweek Dec 34.3 34.3 HIGH
F
Jan 6
08:30 Hourly Earnings Dec 0.2% -0.1% HIGH
F
Jan 6
08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 150K 120K HIGH
F
Jan 6
08:30 Unemployment Rate Dec 8.7% 8.6% HIGH

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...The expectation is for the Fed Funds Rate to remain at its rock bottom level well into the future. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25 0%–0.25%
Mar 13 0%–0.25%
Apr 25 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25      <1%
Mar 13      <1%
Apr 25      <1%
 
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender