Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Inside Lending Newsletter - For the week of December 27, 2011 – Vol. 9, Issue 52cember 19, 2011 – Vol. 9, Issue 51

Happy New Year!

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."...never retreat, never retract...never admit a mistake."--Napoleon Bonaparte

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
...Wisely, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) did not follow the diminutive Emperor's advice last week, admitting they uncovered some mistakes in the statistical model used to estimate national Existing Home Sales the past few years. They therefore had to revise those sales down 14%, to a 4.42 million annual rate in November. Nevertheless, Existing Home sales were UP 4% for the month and UP 12% versus a year ago. And the inventory is down 18% versus last year, now at a 7 months' supply!

In line with that, Housing Starts were UP 9.3% for November and UP 24.3% versus a year ago, while Building Permits were UP 5.7% for the month. November New Home Sales came in Friday UP 1.6%, with the supply dropping to 6 months, its lowest level since early 2006! The numbers of unsold new homes under construction and unsold completed new homes are also at or near record lows. The FHFA price index for homes financed by conforming mortgages was down just 0.2% in October and is down only 2.8% versus a year ago.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Start on a goal right away. Get the momentum going by taking action immediately--flesh out the schedule, reserve important dates, get delivery commitments from others.

>> Review of Last Week

SANTA CAME EARLY...It was a little early for a "Santa Claus rally" (see below), but it sure seemed like the big man in red was giving Wall Street investors a nice holiday gift--to wit, a better than 3.5% weekly gain in stock prices, recouping the prior week's slide. Recent European worries were assuaged by improving German sentiment data, an encouraging Spanish bond auction and the European Central Bank's Long-term Refinancing Operation (LTRO), which promised greater stability in the region, at least for awhile.

We also had better economic news on our side of the pond. Initial jobless claims dropped to 364,000, the lowest level since April 2008, and continuing claims dropped to 3.55 million, the lowest since September 2008. Durable Goods orders were up 3.8% in November, beating expectations. On the inflation front, Core PCE Prices were up just 0.1% in November and well within the Fed's target range, at 1.7% for the year. But Q3 GDP was revised down to a sobering 1.8%.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 3.6%, at 12294; the S&P 500 shot UP 3.7%, to 1265; and the Nasdaq went UP 2.5%, to 2619.

As stocks soared, it was a tough week in the bond market. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .90, to $101.32. But national average fixed mortgage rates remained at or near their all-time record lows according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey.

DID YOU KNOW?
...A "Santa Claus rally" is a rise in stock prices that sometimes occurs the week after Christmas. It often anticipates the "January Effect"--a rise in stock prices the first month of the year.

>> This Week’s Forecast

YEAR ENDING ON HOME SALES PENDING...Thursday's Pending Home Sales for November, indicating how actual sales might go the next few months, should be up slightly. December Consumer Confidence is also forecast up a bit, perhaps due to the slowly improving jobs picture, with weekly Initial Unemployment Claims predicted to remain below 400,000. The Chicago PMI, a bellwether for manufacturing overall, is expected to stay in expansion mode.

Next Monday, January 2, 2012, the stock market will be closed in observance of New Year's Day. May the coming year bring all the best to you and yours!

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Dec 26 – Dec 30

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Dec 27
10:00 Consumer Confidence Dec 58.0 56.0 Moderate
Th
Dec 29
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 12/24 368K 364K Moderate
Th
Dec 29
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 12/17 3.600M 3.546M Moderate
Th
Dec 29
09:45 Chicago PMI  Dec. 60.1 62.6 HIGH
Th
Dec 29
10:00 Pending Home Sales Nov 0.6% 10.4% Moderate
Th
Dec 29
11:00 Crude Inventories 12/24 NA -10.570M Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...There are virtually no economists who expect the Fed to hike the Funds Rate any time in the near future. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25 0%–0.25%
Mar 13 0%–0.25%
Apr 25 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25      <1%
Mar 13      <1%
Apr 25      <1%
 
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

8 Things to Focus on for Facebook Marketing!


Facebook is the biggest social network on the planet--more than 800 million active users. So you really can't ignore it in your online marketing strategy. Here are some tips to take your Facebook effort to the next level.

1. Don't stray from your topic.
When people "Like" you on Facebook, they expect subsequent posts to relate to you and your industry. Here's how to keep the ideas coming:
  • Think why you visit a page--you're looking for tips, an answer to a question or information you don't see elsewhere
  • Tie a current event to your business
  • Ask your audience to post pictures, stories or questions about your industry to your wall
  • Repost the best content back out as an update
  • Share a humorous YouTube video that connects to your industry
2. Drive traffic to your website.
Don't bury your web address on the info tab where visitors can't find it--display it in several places. The first place to feature your web address is in the "About" field of the info tab. It's in the very visible left sidebar of your Facebook page. But only the first 80 characters are displayed before a "More" link appears. So put your web address first.

3. Give them a reason to become fans.
Use a Reveal tab to offer first-time visitors a call to action. Encourage them to Like your fan page in order to receive a coupon, a free trial or special information. This is a great way to increase fan conversion rates while offering real value to becoming a fan.

4. Ask them questions.
Be sure to make the questions interesting, even entertaining. It's a great way to get your Facebook fans talking. Go for questions that need just one-word answers or are otherwise easy to respond to. Best of all are questions about the fans--people love to talk about themselves.

5. Mark your milestones.
When you reach a milestone, celebrate with your fans like you would with friends. Even if it's something small, pull your fans in and thank them.

6. Add a picture.
Put one in every Facebook status update you can. Use pictures of yourself or your customers, employees and special events. And be sure to crop them...they'll be tiny on Facebook, so zoom in! There's really no such thing as a bad picture.

7. Work the network.
Tap into your Facebook audience to get instant feedback, ideas on new products or services, insights on how to market better and which topics are trending with your audience. Be proactive!

8. Study the data.
There are currently unmined volumes of data that have been crowd sourced through Facebook and other social media. Start experimenting with data mining, data-driven analysis and intelligence now, because that's where we're going. Learn how to use data to create more intelligent, more targeted and more effective marketing campaigns.

Start using these tips to leverage the power of Facebook right away.... Enjoy a great month!
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender  

Monday, December 19, 2011

Inside Lending Newsletter - For the week of December 19, 2011 – Vol. 9, Issue 51

Happy Holidays!

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Do what you can with what you have where you are."--Theodore Roosevelt

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
...The famous President's sage advice from a century ago is still the appropriate approach to today's housing market. In the midst of all the media noise, it's always good to check what we do have and where we really are. For example, the Census Bureau reported that although the median sale price of new homes in October was down 15% over the last five years, it's actually up 26% over the last ten. More evidence that housing still is a good investment over the long term.

A recent economic forecast from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports existing home sales are expected to grow by 1.2% this year and 5.1% in 2012. And although the median existing home price is predicted to dip about 4% this year, it should recover and go UP 2.6% in 2012. Sales should also jump to 5.22 million units from this year's projected 4.97 million.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Now is a good time to think about setting goals. The key is to make those goals concrete--as specific as you can--with a time frame for when you want to achieve them.

>> Review of Last Week

EURO TRASH...It was another week of European worries trashing stock prices. The Euro Summit the week before failed to come up with the "bazooka" solution investors had been looking for. Then ratings agencies warned of potential further downgrades in the region. All this made Wall Streeters feel quite risk averse, causing them to exit the equity markets, which sent all three major indexes decidedly down for the week.

With our own economy, things weren't so bad. Retail Sales were up for November, though less than expected, but up 6.7% versus a year ago. This wasn't enough to impress the Fed, whose meeting Tuesday made it three years of interest rates at near-zero levels. The economic data isn't great, but it is somewhat improving. Initial weekly jobless claims hit a 43-month low of 366,000. The Empire State and Philadelphia Fed Surveys of manufacturing in those regions were better than expected, although industrial production overall dropped a bit. 

For the week, the Dow ended down 2.6%, at 11866; the S&P 500 slipped down 2.8%, to 1220; and the Nasdaq dropped 3.5%, to 2555.

Investors were still nervous about Europe and the Fed's statement didn't say anything to concern traders, so bond prices held up well. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week UP .91, at $102.22. This is of course good for interest rates and, once again, Freddie Mac's weekly survey had national average fixed mortgage rates remaining at or near their all-time lows.

DID YOU KNOW?
... This week's PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) measures inflation by tracking changes in prices. Unlike last week's Consumer Price Index, based on a fixed basket of goods and services, the PCE changes with consumer spending habits.

>> This Week’s Forecast

HOUSING, GDP, INFLATION...The week jams in a bunch of housing market reports and they're mixed. On Tuesday, November Housing Starts and Building Permits should come in down a tad, but November Existing Home Sales are predicted to rise north of five million units. Friday, we'll see November New Home Sales, forecast to edge up to a 313,000 annual rate.

Thursday will feature the Third Estimate for Third Quarter GDP, expected to stay an anemic 2.0%. Friday, Core PCE Prices, the Fed's key measure of inflation, is forecast flat for November, which should make everyone happy. The stock market will be closed next Monday, December 26, in observance of the Christmas holiday.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Dec 19 – Dec 23

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Dec 20
08:30 Housing Starts Nov 627K 628K Moderate
Tu
Dec 20
08:30 Building Permits Nov 633K 653K Moderate
W
Dec 21
10:00 Existing Home Sales Nov 5.03M 4.97M Moderate
W
Dec 21
10:30 Crude Inventories 12/17 NA -1.932M Moderate
Th
Dec 22
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 12/17 380K 366K Moderate
Th
Dec 22
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 12/10 3.650M 3.603M Moderate
Th
Dec 22
08:30 GDP-3rd Estimate Q3 2.0% 2.0% Moderate
Th
Dec 22
08:30 GDP Deflator-3rd Estimate Q3 2.5% 2.5% Moderate
Th
Dec 22
09:55 Univ. of Michigan Sentiment-Final Dec 68.0 67.7 Moderate
Th
Dec 22
10:00 Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index Nov 0.3% 0.9% Moderate
F
Dec 23
08:30 Durable Goods Orders Nov 2.0% -0.5% Moderate
F
Dec 23
08:30 Personal Income Nov 0.2% 0.4% Moderate
F
Dec 23
08:30 Personal Spending Nov 0.3% 0.1% HIGH
F
Dec 23
08:30 Core PCE Prices Nov 0.1% 0.1% HIGH
F
Dec 23
10:00 New Home Sales Nov 313K 307K Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...Last week, the Fed kept the Funds Rate unchanged and that's where economists expect it to stay well into the future. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25 0%–0.25%
Mar 13 0%–0.25%
Apr 25 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 25      <1%
Mar 13      <1%
Apr 25      <1%
 
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender

Monday, December 12, 2011

Inside Lending Newsletter - For the week of December 12, 2011 – Vol. 9, Issue 50

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Be not afraid of going slowly; be only afraid of standing still."--Chinese Proverb

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
...The housing recovery may be proceeding slowly, but things are definitely not at a standstill. Earlier this year, an industry rent vs. buy index found it is more affordable to buy than rent a two-bedroom home in 72% of America's 50 biggest cities. In fact, renting was less expensive than buying only in New York, Kansas City, San Francisco and Seattle. And in 10 of the cities where renting was relatively affordable versus ownership, people felt buying may still be a financially sound long-term decision.

A recent consumer study showed people are getting the message. With home prices now at such affordable levels, 62% of those surveyed said buying in today's market is a good investment over the next 10 years. The most popular advice people would give to anyone thinking of purchasing a home is to avoid buying more house than they can afford. Good advice indeed.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Most people don't base their buying decisions solely on logic. So if you're having trouble trying to change someone's mind, try instead to change their mood.

>> Review of Last Week

ANOTHER EUROPEAN TRIP...Investors again spent the week in Europe, at least as far as their mental focus was concerned. S&P put all 17 Euro nations on a ratings downgrade watch and the European Central Bank gave a cautious economic outlook. This bit of news sent stocks on an almost 200-point slide on Thursday. No matter. Last week's summit meeting of eurozone officials announced tighter fiscal controls and help from both the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, so stocks shot back up and ended the week ahead in all three major indexes.

Elsewhere, the economic data showed progress. China's sharp decline in inflation for November was encouraging. Over here, initial jobless claims surprised to the upside, coming in at 381,000, while continuing claims dropped to 3.583 million, the first time they've been that low in a while. The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for December hit a six-month high, which bodes well for consumer spending. 

For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.4%, at 12184; the S&P 500 moved UP 0.9%, to 1255; and the Nasdaq was UP 0.8%, to 2647.

Friday's big day for stocks led to heavy selling in the bond market, as the news from Europe made investors way less risk averse. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .75, at $101.31. National average mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained at record low levels for the sixth week in a row, as reported in Freddie Mac's weekly survey.

DID YOU KNOW?
... The European Central Bank, now much in the news, is the bank created to administer monetary policy for the countries which converted their currency to the Euro.

>> This Week’s Forecast

RETAIL, INFLATION, THE FED...There are no big housing reports this week. But there will be a few other economic topics worth noting. November Retail Sales on Tuesday are expected to remain in growth mode, encouraging evidence that consumers are still doing their best to support the recovery.

Later that day, we'll hear from the Fed's last meeting of the year. They'll keep the Rate where it is, but their policy statement will be scrutinized as usual. The only thing that could shake our central bank from its low rate stance is a bump in inflation. But wholesale PPI inflation on Thursday and consumer CPI inflation on Friday are both expected to stay at benign levels.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Dec 12 – Dec 16

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Dec 13
08:30 Retail Sales Nov 0.6% 0.5% HIGH
Tu
Dec 13
08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov 0.5% 0.6% HIGH
Tu
Dec 13
10:00 Business Inventories Oct 0.9% 0.0% Moderate
Tu
Dec 14
14:15 FOMC Rate Decision 12/13 0%-0.25% 0%-0.25% HIGH
W
Dec 7
10:30 Crude Inventories 12/10 NA 1.336M Moderate
Th
Dec 15
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 12/10 390K 381K Moderate
Th
Dec 15
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 12/3 3.625M 3.583M Moderate
Th
Dec 15
08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Nov 0.2% -0.3% Moderate
Th
Dec 15
08:30 Core PPI Nov 0.1% 0.0% Moderate
Th
Dec 15
08:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Dec 3.0 0.61 Moderate
Th
Dec 15
09:15 Industrial Production Nov 0.2% 0.7% Moderate
Th
Dec 15
09:15 Capacity Utilization Nov 77.8% 77.8% Moderate
Th
Dec 15
10:00 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Dec 4.3 3.60 HIGH
F
Dec 16
08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Nov 0.1% -0.1% HIGH
F
Dec 16
08:30 Core CPI Nov 0.1% 0.1% HIGH

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...This week, the Fed's last meeting of the year is not expected to result in any change in the Fed Funds Rate. Economists feel this situation will remain for some time. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Dec 13 0%–0.25%
Jan 25 0%–0.25%
Mar 13 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Dec 13      <1%
Jan 25      <1%
Mar 13      <1%
 
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender

12 things to put on your Holiday Checklist PLUS...Year-end financial to-do list


The Holidays are upon us. Here's how to stay well organized, so you can enjoy them the most.

1. Do your online shopping first. Order gifts on the internet now, to allow time for shipping, returns and getting them wrapped.

2. Wrap after purchase. This keeps little ones from seeing what Santa has--and saves you that last minute pile-up of unwrapped gifts.

3. How are you fixed for glasses? The holidays often feature bigger entertaining. Make sure you have enough glassware and dishes for parties and meals.

4. Put the tree up and decorate. Getting it done by the coming weekend leaves your free to focus on your other holiday tasks.

5. Do your holiday meal menus. Decide what you'll be cooking and what others will bring, make up a master grocery list and order the turkey, ham or other centerpiece dish.

6. Do your nonperishable shopping. Get in all canned goods, pantry staples and bottled beverages.

7. Clean the house. Keeping the house neat makes decorations stand out. And clean out the refrigerator to make room for those bigger big holiday dishes.

8. Got kids? Get batteries! Make sure you have them on hand in all the right sizes.

9. Shop for your fresh foods. Get these ingredients two or three days before you'll need them.

10. Set the table ahead of time. That way you can concentrate on the food prep the day of the feast.

11. Don't forget fresh flowers. Get them two days before to give blooms time to open up.

12. Charge camera and video batteries. Charge spare batteries too, if you have them.

Now you're ready to relax and enjoy family and friends!

YOUR END-OF-THE-YEAR FINANCIAL CHECK-UPS

Now is the right time to take a look at a few financial matters:

1. Review health and dental care choices. Many employers allow you to make changes to your benefit plans now. Check with doctors and dentists to make sure they're still in your plan's preferred provider network and that your family has adequate coverage.

2. Review use-or-lose accounts. Pretax Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) are set up this way. Review your plan to see if you have some spending to do, or if your employer offers a grace period. Even then, make sure 2011 expenses are still allowed in 2012.

3. Review your withholding. Check the withholding calculator at the IRS website. If you haven't been withholding enough to cover your taxes, you might want to increase the amount on this year's remaining paychecks. Under-withholding can result in penalties.

4. Get ready for 2011 taxes. Check last year's returns to see who needs to send you what tax documents, and by when. Make a list and follow up if anyone holds you up at the beginning of the year. Also, check last year's return for itemized deductions. See if you should make deductible purchases now or wait until 2012.

Note: Be sure to consult with a tax professional before making any decisions related to your tax situation.

5. Set your 2012 financial goals. Now is the time to write down what you'd like to achieve financially next year. Save money for a down payment on a new house? Start a college fund for your kids? Put more into your retirement fund?

Remember, we're always here to answer any questions.... Have a great day!

PS  With today's extremely low mortgage rates and home prices more affordable than ever, many people are upsizing, downsizing or refinancing. Please call or email us now to discuss your situation.

This was sent to you because of your relationship with Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Lender. © 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331




Equal Housing Lender

Monday, December 5, 2011

Inside Lending Newsletter - For the week of December 5, 2011 – Vol. 9, Issue 49

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Motivation is the art of getting people to do what you want them to do because they want to do it."--Dwight D. Eisenhower

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
...Enough people were motivated to buy new homes in October to push monthly sales up 1.3% to a 307,000 annual rate. Even better, the motivation was strong enough to send the median price to $212,300, UP 4% over a year ago. Going forward, what should motivate everyone is that the supply of new homes fell to 6.3 months. Nonetheless, new home sales need to get to an annual rate around 950,000 and some observers say that will take another few years.

Housing market pessimists had to be really disappointed by October's Pending Home Sales. This measure of signed contracts for existing home sales that have not yet closed was UP 10.4% for the month and is 9.2% higher than it was a year ago. This bodes well for existing home sales a few months out. Additional home price data went in opposite directions. The Case-Shiller home price index in the 20 largest metros was down 0.6% in September, but the FHFA index registered a 0.9% price increase for homes financed with conforming mortgages.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...A great thought this time of year: give generously without expecting anything in return--it will pay off in the long run.

>> Review of Last Week

YO-YO MARKETS...That's how one chief investment officer described what's been happening on Wall Street. The worst ever Thanksgiving week for stocks was followed by the S&P 500's biggest weekly gain since March 2009, the Dow's largest weekly gain since July 2009 and a seriously strong upturn for the Nasdaq. The bulls got back in control starting with some reassuring news for Europe. The Fed and five other central banks agreed to lower the cost of borrowing dollars for foreign banks. This doesn't solve fiscal problems for the Europeans, but it does keep the money flowing to buy them more time.

Decent economic data kept the bulls on their charge. In addition to the housing news, sales for the first full weekend of holiday shopping were UP 16.4% over last year according to the National Retail Federation. ComScore reported Black Friday online sales were up 26% from last year. Then Friday's November Employment Report showed 120,000 new jobs, plus revisions to October and November added another 72,000 payrolls. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.6%, but this was due to a decrease in the labor force of 315,000. There was also concern over the 0.1% drop in average hourly earnings. 

For the week, the Dow ended UP 7%, at 12019; the S&P 500 went UP 7.4%, to 1244; and the Nasdaq was UP 7.6%, to 2627.

Stocks were surging, so bonds should have tanked if things had gone by the book. But these days, not many things financial follow a predictable course. Bond performance was actually mixed, which turned out well for the FNMA 3.5% bond we watch. It ended the week up .86, to $102.06. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, national average mortgage rates remained at or near record lows for the fifth week in a row.

DID YOU KNOW?
... The Trade Balance reported this week is the country's exports, minus imports. It is the largest component of our balance of payments.

>> This Week’s Forecast

LIGHT ON THE NEWS... This week won't have much in the way of economic data, but it's good to keep a watch on ISM Services, as that sector provides the vast majority of our jobs. This index is expected to be up a bit for November and still expanding. The Trade Balance is forecast to show a slightly higher deficit for October, while University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment should also stay near previous levels.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Dec 5 – Dec 9

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
M
Dec 5
10:00 ISM Services Nov 53.4 52.9 Moderate
W
Dec 7
10:30 Crude Inventories 12/3 NA 3.932M Moderate
Th
Dec 8
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 12/3 395K 402K Moderate
Th
Dec 8
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 11/26 3.700M 3.740M Moderate
F
Dec 9
08:30 Trade Balance Oct -$44.0B -$43.1B Moderate
F
Dec 9
09:55 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Dec 65.0 64.1 Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...Economists see no change coming in the Fed Funds Rate well into next year. Of course, inflation will have to be watched. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Dec 13 0%–0.25%
Jan 25 0%–0.25%
Mar 13 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Dec 13      <1%
Jan 25      <1%
Mar 13      <1%
 
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

8 Tips to Be More Effective in Business!

To most people, being more effective in business means being more successful. Write down the ways you might measure that success--sales revenues, net income, number of new clients, annual growth rate. Then choose the goals you'd like to achieve.

To reach those goals, the experts believe it takes a mindset and an approach that you need to apply consistently. Here are the key ingredients of such an approach:

1. Start with the end in mind. Know what your goal is in every effort you undertake. Then keep that goal at the front of your thought from the very beginning.

2. Stay one step ahead. Some people call this being proactive. Just think of it as taking action. Successful people act more than they react.

3. First things first. You know the things that are of most value to you. Focus on those ahead of everything else.

4. Understand the client. It's more important for you to understand the needs of the people you're serving than for them to understand all the great things you do.

5. Seek synergy. Don't hesitate to engage strategic partners who bring something to the table you don't offer. When it's appropriate, two heads definitely are better than one.

6. Success should always be mutual. Deliver great benefits to your clients and great benefits will come to you. That's the real meaning of win-win--constantly seeking mutual benefit in all your business interactions. It's an approach that's very appealing to prospects and clients.

7. Stay fresh. You don't want to get stale, so self-renewal is important. Pursue programs and activities that keep you fresh mentally, physically, socially (or emotionally) and spiritually. These four areas of our lives are equally important.

8. Watch your time. We all know time management is key. Books have been written on how to better manage your time, but here are four easy ways to get more efficient right now:

  • Write a to-do list. It can be on your computer, in an app or, old school, on a piece of paper. And it's critical to using your time well.
  • Be real. Realistically estimate the amount of time a task will take. Everyone tends to underestimate. This is sometimes by a lot.
  • Keep organized. Don't waste time looking for things. Know where they are. Scan business cards into your computer. Keep all passwords in their own little address book. Back up computer files daily.
  • Get the tech advantage. You don't have to go for every new gadget. But if a piece of technology lets you get things done during waiting or down times, it makes sense to use it.
Start putting some of these tips to work right away. They can represent big changes in your approach and attitude. But the more you do them, the easier they become.... Enjoy a great month!
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

For the week of November 28, 2011 – Vol. 9, Issue 48

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."One who is a master of patience is master of everything else."--George Savile (1633–1695), English statesman, writer and politician

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
...The patient approach advocated by the 1st Marquess of Halifax is proving to be the right tactic for mastering today's housing market. Last week, October Existing Home Sales inched up to an annual rate just under 5 million units. And although things appear to be improving only slowly, existing home sales are actually UP 13.5% from a year ago.

Even better, the months' supply of existing homes fell to 8.0 and inventory is now down 13.8% versus a year ago. The naysayers jumped on the fact that the median price was also down. But a large portion of October sales came from distressed properties whose prices are heavily discounted. Although some see this as a negative, it's what's needed for inventories to be worked down and for the housing market to recover.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Planning is important but stay flexible. The unexpected often happens in business and flexibility keeps you open to the creative thinking needed to succeed.

>> Review of Last Week

NO THANKS... People feel positive around Thanksgiving, but folks on Wall Street spent the week in a decidedly negative mood. They were put there at the start by Congressional leaders who couldn't get past partisan politics to deal with our nation's fiscal issues. Then Moody's fed the down vibe with cautious comments about France's debt rating outlook. A third bummer came with Tuesday's downward revision to Q3 GDP, coming in at a measly 2.0%. The net result? The worst ever Thanksgiving week for stocks.

There really were some things to be thankful for. The Q3 GDP report showed business investment growing at its fastest pace this year. Chain store sales were UP 3.7% over last year by one study and UP 2.8% by another. Incomes grew in October more than predicted, although spending grew less. Initial jobless claims stayed below 400,000. Finally, October Durable Goods orders were down slightly for the month, but if you take out volatile transportation, they are UP 11.7% from a year ago.

For the week, the Dow ended down 4.8%, at 11232; the S&P 500 went down 4.7%, to 1159; and the Nasdaq sank 5.1%, to 2442.

With stocks having such an awful week, you'd expect bonds to benefit immensely. Not so this time. With volumes down as usual on Black Friday's shortened trading day, bond performance was mixed. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .02, at $101.20. National average mortgage rates remained at or near record lows for the fourth week in a row, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey.

DID YOU KNOW?
... The 1792 Buttonwood Agreement created the New York Stock Exchange. It was signed by 24 stockbrokers under a buttonwood tree outside 86 Wall Street.

>> This Week’s Forecast

NEW HOME SALES, PENDING HOME SALES, JOBS... Of great interest this week will be more housing market reports and the jobs numbers that are key to the real estate recovery. October New Home Sales are expected to hold steady, above the 300,000 level. September Pending Home Sales, indicating Existing Home Sales a few months out, look to be up a tad.

Friday, we get the November Employment Report. Although payrolls should rise, the number of new jobs is still not enough to bring down the unemployment rate.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Nov 28 – Dec 2

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
M
Nov 28
10:00 New Home Sales Oct 312K 313K Moderate
Tu
Nov 29
10:00 Consumer Confidence Nov 43.0 39.8 Moderate
W
Nov 30
08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q3 2.6% 3.1% Moderate
W
Nov 30
09:45 Chicago PMI Nov 57.5 58.4 HIGH
W
Nov 30
10:00 Pending Home Sales Sep 0.1% -4.6% Moderate
W
Nov 30
10:30 Crude Inventories 11/26 NA -6.219M Moderate
W
Nov 30
14:00 Fed Beige Book Nov NA NA Moderate
Th
Dec 1
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 11/26 390K 393K Moderate
Th
Dec 1
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 11/19 3.650M 3.691M Moderate
Th
Dec 1
10:00 ISM Index Nov 51.0 50.8 HIGH
F
Dec 2
08:30 Average Workweek Nov 34.3 34.3 HIGH
F
Dec 2
08:30 Hourly Earnings Nov 0.2% 0.2% HIGH
F
Dec 2
08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 118K 80K HIGH
F
Dec 2
08:30 Unemployment Rate Nov 9.0% 9.0% HIGH

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...The Fed says it wants to keep the Funds rate where it is through mid-2013 and economists expect that they will. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Dec 13 0%–0.25%
Jan 25 0%–0.25%
Mar 13 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Dec 13      <1%
Jan 25      <1%
Mar 13      <1%
 
This e-mail is an advertisement for Dan Davidson. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, - lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 10331



Equal Housing Lender